← Home-run Store Championships
Fire Tera SilvieTier 2
at Home-run Store Championships
decks
2
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
3-5-1
overall winrate
38.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.2%
avg ELO -2.2 per match
expected value
48.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1224
· median 1224
· range 1220–1227
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1064
Q1 1223
Q3 1391
1535
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.9% | -4.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 9.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.7% | -16.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Water Fractal | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.9% | +14.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.7 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
